Incorporating textual and management factors into financial distress prediction: A comparative study of machine learning methods

Financial distress prediction (FDP) has been widely considered as a promising approach to reducing financial losses. While financial information comprises the traditional factors involved in FDP, nonfinancial factors have also been examined in recent studies. In light of this, the purpose of this study is to explore the integrated factors and multiple models that can improve the predictive performance of FDP models. This study proposes an FDP framework to reveal the financial distress features of listed Chinese companies, incorporating financial, management, and textual factors, and evaluating the prediction performance of multiple models in different time spans. To develop this framework, this study employs the wrapper-based feature selection method to extract valuable features, and then constructs multiple single classifiers, ensemble classifiers, and deep learning models in order to predict financial distress. The experiment results indicate that management and textual factors can supplement traditional financial factors in FDP, especially textual ones. This study also discovers that integrated factors collected 4 years prior to the predicted benchmark year enable a more accurate prediction, and the ensemble classifiers and deep learning models developed can achieve satisfactory FDP performance. This study makes a novel contribution as it expands the predictive factors of financial distress and provides new findings that can have important implications for providing early warning signals of financial risk.     

数智化时代下的创业影响及政策转型

在综述数智化创业活动影响及创业政策需求的基础上,依据产业政策的经典分析框架讨论了数智化影响下创业政策调整的对象和过程。从个人、团队、团队间三个层次分析并总结数智化时代下的创业影响特征,同时提出了数智化对创业政策的新诉求,归纳创业政策的主体、政策适应过程、政策目标制定三方面新特征,为政府创业政策的转型提供方向。研究归纳的多层次主体资源整合、边界与过程融合、创造需求新起点等数智化转型特征与政策转变要点能够为创业政策转型提供理论参考。     

人造购物狂欢节现状调查——以蚌埠市为例

为探究人造购物狂欢节在三线城市的现状,以安徽省蚌埠市为例,对蚌埠市4个城区(龙子湖区、蚌山区、禹会区、淮上区)的消费者进行问卷调查,运用假设检验、列联分析等统计方法对问卷结果进行探究,发现女性比男性购物要频繁;中、高收入的中年群体属于"经常购物类型";"双十一"的主要消费人群为中、低收入居民,而"节假日购物节"的主要消费人群为高收入居民;服装配饰、日用百货和护肤彩妆更受消费者青睐,可能为连带销售商品;性别对消费结构、购买力度有影响等.基于此,针对商家提出政策性建议.     

谢桥煤矿综采工作面“人—机—环境”系统研究与应用

综采工作面是煤矿生产系统的重要组成部分,其"人—机—环境"相互作用关系直接影响着煤矿的安全生产。本文以谢桥煤矿综采面"人—机—环境"系统为研究对象,并从这三个组成要素出发,对各类影响因素进行了研究和评价,为人、机、环境各子系统的改进提供理论基础和决策支持。继而结合采煤生产循环实际过程,提出"以人为本"的人机工程匹配完善方案,提高人机互动准确度,克服设备三大故障。将研究结果应用到谢桥煤矿13116综采工作面的实际生产,并提出相应的改进措施,使系统功能趋于完善。     

国内外手语语序研究综述

文章查阅了国内外关于手语语序研究的文献,对研究结果进行分析归纳后得出:手语语序研究在国外开展比较深入,国内相关研究尚显薄弱;手语语序受到动词方向性、类标记结构、语义、语用以及非手控特征等多种因素的影响;判断手语基本语序的标准与口语大致相同;对被试的选择和实验材料的设计越来越科学合理。文章在分析归纳已有研究成果的基础上,提出了中国手语语序研究中应该注意的问题。     

Making the abstract concrete: The role of norms and values in experimental modeling

Experimental modeling is the construction of theoretical models hand in hand with experimental activity. As explained in Section 1, experimental modeling starts with claims about phenomena that use abstract concepts, concepts whose conditions of realization are not yet specified; and it ends with a concrete model of the phenomenon, a model that can be tested against data. This paper argues that this process from abstract concepts to concrete models involves judgments of relevance, which are irreducibly normative. In Section 2, we show, on the basis of several case studies, how these judgments contribute to the determination of the conditions of realization of the abstract concepts and, at the same time, of the quantities that characterize the phenomenon under study. Then, in Section 3, we compare this view on modeling with other approaches that also have acknowledged the role of relevance judgments in science. To conclude, in Section 4, we discuss the possibility of a plurality of relevance judgments and introduce a distinction between locally and generally relevant factors.     

明代宦官新论

明代的宦官制度一直为人所诟病,甚至很多人都将明代灭亡的原因归结为宦官,尽管牵强,但是明代宦官为害之深是汉唐两代所不曾有的,既要究其制度成因,更需要对其社会背景下的心理因素进行剖析。     

基于水军信任惩罚的多维用户影响力度量模型

社交网络用户影响力度量是意见领袖识别的必要前提,然而目前的度量模型忽略了多维影响因素以及水军群体对度量模型真实性的影响.为此本文从网络结构、交互行为和交互信息三个维度来分析整合相关的影响因素,基于LeaderRank模型构建多维用户影响力度量-MUI模型,并在水军识别的基础上构建信任惩罚模型,以修正MUI模型建立MUISTP模型,实现社交网络用户影响力的真实性度量.以新浪微博平台大规模实际数据进行实验分析结果表明,与FBI,LeaderRank和Generative Graphical模型相比,MUI模型识别出的意见领袖更为准确,且可以实现更为有效的信息扩散.此外,经过水军信任惩罚后MUISTP模型较MUI能够实现更为有效的意见领袖识别.     

纤维增强薄壁注塑件翘曲变形耦合有限元分析

基于耦合有限元分析方法，运用模流分析软件Moldflow和结构分析软件Abaqus进行联合仿真，计算了脱模后薄壁塑件的应力分布和翘曲变形情况，并通过对比验证了该方法的有效性，随后考察了主要工艺参数和壁厚对翘曲变形的影响。研究结果表明：随着翘曲变形的产生塑件内的残余应力随之减小；在考察的工艺参数范围内，壁厚是影响翘曲变形的主要因素，随着壁厚的增加，翘曲变形量减小，而工艺参数对翘曲变形的影响则相对较小；但随着壁厚持续增加，因塑件刚度的增加，壁厚对翘曲变形的影响程度随之减小。该结果与文献结论一致。     

应用理念下专业课程设置制约因素研究——以数学与应用数学（师范专业）为例

探索应用型人才培养模式、实现办学结构转变是新建本科院校面临的重要任务，实现人才培养模式的转变，课程设置是一个重要环节．文章以数学与应用数学师范专业为例，论述了应用理念下课程设置的制约因素：课程理念、办学定位、社会需要和学科发展等因素制约着课程的设置．